By J.K. Dineen, Reporter Dec 11, 2024
https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/housing-goals-new-york-19964184.php
San Francisco has to permit 82,000 homes by 2031, according to the state of California. It’s the same number of homes New York City has to produce in 15 years.
Stephen Lam/The Chronicle
Last week New York housing advocates celebrated the passage of the “City of Yes” legislation, a plan to rezone the city of 8 million in order to encourage the construction of 82,000 units over the next 15 years, with Mayor Eric Adams calling it “the most pro-housing piece of legislation in city history.”
But for those who track housing politics in the Bay Area, the news stood out for another reason: 82,000 happens also to be the number of units state housing officials are mandating that San Francisco — a city with one-tenth of the population of New York — plan for in its current eight-year housing element, which goes from 2023 to 2031.
Depending on how you look at it, the twin 82,000 goals either underscore how ambitious California is about tackling a housing shortage 40 years in the making, or the absurdity of the state’s expectations.
Every California county and municipality is given a Regional Housing Needs Assessment number, known as RHNA, which tells a given location how many homes it needs to permit in eight years. Through the first two years of the current “housing element” cycle, San Francisco builders have produced about 3,600 units in San Francisco, less than 5% of the 82,000 goal. Another 4,300 units are under construction, which means that the city is on track to produce about 8,000 new units in the first half of its housing element cycle.
Chris Elmendorf, a UC Davis law professor and housing policy expert, said “the magnitude of what New York just did is much smaller than what California is doing.”