By DAVID NEWMAN
PUBLISHED: December 23, 2024
https://www.marinij.com/2024/12/23/marin-voice-to-save-democratic-party-bay-area-must-build-more-homes/
There is a startling contradiction at the heart of Bay Area politics. On the one hand, the Bay Area is an unabashed “blue” stronghold, defining itself by its support for diversity and tolerance. Yet its resistance to building new homes cuts against these values.
Time and again, experts have proven that suppressing housing is fundamentally regressive, massively increasing segregation, per-capita carbon emissions and rents. But possibly even more troubling, the opposition to development is kneecapping the Democratic Party on a national level.
Leaders like Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Barack Obama understand this, which is why they embraced pro-housing rhetoric during the 2024 campaign. If Democrats want to preserve electoral power, they must show that the approach to governance has merit. They must provide sanctuary to vulnerable Americans. They must build more homes.
There’s little overstating how badly California and places like Marin County have failed at the above. Over the last half-century, California’s paltry housing production has left it with an immense supply shortage, and it now possess the nation’s highest cost of living.
No place has driven the state’s crisis as much as the Bay Area. As a result, our state’s population dropped in 2019 for the first time since 1850, then proceeded to fall for the next three years straight. Marin has long been the strongest opponent of growth in the state; while California’s population nearly doubled post-1970, Marin’s stalled, growing just over 22%. And while some argue that recent population declines prove we don’t need to build, these folks are confusing cause and effect. Demand is as high as ever, as seen by our skyrocketing rents.
So where are people moving instead? In many cases, it is to affordable, politically “red” states. Since 2020, red counties have gained over 3.7 million new residents, and blue counties like Marin have lost over 3.7 million. While low demand helps keep prices down in red states, even high-demand cities in these areas have continued to build homes.
For example, in 2022, Austin, Texas, permitted 50% more homes than the entire Bay Area. And who’s filling these homes? Evidence shows that the vast plurality of new Texas residents in Austin come from, naturally, California.
For a nation as evenly divided as ours, the implications of this are severe. With the drop in population, California has already lost one congressional vote, and experts project us to lose at least four more this decade. In total, Democrat-run states could lose over 12 guaranteed electoral votes and House seats after the 2030 census. And while it’s true that pushing a Republican state like Texas left could have upsides, as the presidential election proved, its trend is far from certain.
But even beyond future electoral math, the inability of blue states to build is undermining party optics right now. Experts agree that our lack of housing is the primary reason homelessness is so widespread in the region. So when American voters see images of Bay Area encampments, they rightly see and take to heart the failure of Democratic leadership. And in an election where inflation topped the voters’ concerns, how could a former California senator credibly offer to reign in prices given our state’s cost of living?
Even worse, it’s not just fueling Republican electoral victories – California is supporting that party’s legislative agenda. These actions force countless Americans to live in states that have blocked Medicaid expansion. Some have banned abortion, even in cases of rape and incest; eliminated access to gender-affirming care; or instituted sweeping voter-suppression laws.
Obama famously emphasized that “there are no red states or blue states, just the United States.” While true, Republican governments exist. California is helping to expand their grasp.
Democrats can’t afford more excuses. This is a numbers game, and every time groups move to ban housing – be it because political leaders abhor “capitalist developers” or new neighbors – it plays into the hands of the GOP.
It’s time to change that. It’s time to say yes to more homes.
David Newman, of San Francisco, is an intern for the Marin Environmental Housing Collective. Learn more at marinmehc.org.