The Housing Supply Crisis:
The State’s False Narrative That Supports Investor Profits”
Marc Verville, Catalysts Town Hall, November 15, 2023
© 2023, Marc L. Verville. All rights reserved. No portion of this material may be copied or distributed without author’s written permission.
The Housing Supply Crisis
Presentation Overview
Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA)
Executive Summary
Terms
Assertion #1
RHNA Justification
How Much Housing Supply is Needed?
Wildly Different Shortage Estimates
Is There Evidence of a Supply Shortage?
New Residents per New Housing Unit
Total Housing Units vs. Total Households
Median House Price vs. Median Income
Slide14 Update
Assertion #2
Non-Standard Top-Down Process
Assertion #3
RHNA Housing “Needs” Categories
SCAG Allocations by County
SCAG’s 6th Cycle Projected Need
Assertion #3a – Projected Need
CA State DoF Population Projections
CA State DoF Projections 2020-2060
CA State Demographic Trends
CA State Demographic Trends
Aging Society in Japan
Aging Society in California
CA State Net Annual Migration
Population and Household Projections
Assertion #3b – Existing Need
Lack of Real Recognized Standards
HCD Data Includes Bias
SCAG “Existing Need” Modeling in Error
Santa Monica Case Study
Assertion #4
Unfunded RHNA Mandate
State-Level Affordable Housing Funding
RHNA Affordable Housing
Assertion #5
RHNA’s Affordable Housing Requirements
Allocation of Affordable Units by Income
California Major Areas RHNA Allocations
RHNA 6th Cycle Market Rate Development
Impact of Inclusionary Affordable Policy
RHNA Designed for Market Rate Development
Property Tax Structure
Questions to be Answered
Advocated Positions on RHNA
Independent Analyses Dispute Assertions
Assertion #6
Absence of Basic Economics in RHNA
Assertion #7
Process is NOT Transparent to Public
RHNA Planning Dominated by Pro-Development
Conclusions
