ABAG’s projections use 2015 as the most recent year of actuals.
ABAG’s projections to 2022 (most recent actual data) show how much ABAG dramatically overshot the Bay Area’s population growth. While ABAG projected that during this period, the Bay Area population would increase from 7.6 million to over 8.1 million, it actually decreased to under 7.6 million. ABAG overestimated the Bay Area population by 7.6%. This is a huge error this early in this forecast.
Much ink has been spilled in San Francisco about a proposed development at 2700 Sloat Blvd. that would create a 50-story condo in the Outer Sunset, a neighborhood with no buildings over six stories tall. The development likely received its death blow when the Board of Appeals voted down the appeal of the Planning Commission’s rejection of the project.
By THOMAS ELIAS | Columnist
PUBLISHED: August 8, 2023
On the same July day that California Attorney General Rob Bonta issued a stern warning to cities and counties around the state about alleged misuse of local “urgency” zoning rules the rebellion against those very laws formally began. This happened when Bonta’s own office received a new initiative designed to make local governments — not the state — supreme in setting housing policies and patterns.
Since the 1970s, apostles of growth have decried local control of land use as the evil that has to be stamped out if housing is ever to become abundant and broadly affordable.
Most importantly, as documented by a February report from Terner and the Urban Institute, that doctrine has been read into state land use law across the country, with California leading the way.
So are the new laws working?
Yes and No
Within my previous essay, I developed a California population forecast given that Sacramento’s population forecast released in July 2021 seemed way too high.
To my surprise, the DRU did revise their forecast just a few days ago. And, now their forecast appears a lot more realistic.
This is a really positive development that hopefully will lead Sacramento to revise its housing mandates downward.
A couple of weeks ago I posted an essay on generating a realistic Marin County population projection. I uncovered that Sacramento’s population projections for Marin County were way too high because of their overly aggressive migration assumptions. I wanted to check if this was the case for California as a whole.
My data sources for historical and projected population growth are the same as I used in my earlier essay:
A weekly Zoom call to talk about housing legislation and strategies to preserve local control. Bring your questions and ideas. Informal networking, announcements, and updates. PLEASE NOTE: You have to register in advance the first time to get the new Zoom link. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting. The Zoom link will work for the rest of the year. REGISTER
A weekly Zoom call to talk about housing legislation and strategies to preserve local control. Bring your questions and ideas. Informal networking, announcements, and updates. PLEASE NOTE: You have to register in advance the first time to get the new Zoom link. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting. The Zoom link will work for the rest of the year. REGISTER
A weekly Zoom call to talk about housing legislation and strategies to preserve local control. Bring your questions and ideas. Informal networking, announcements, and updates. PLEASE NOTE: You have to register in advance the first time to get the new Zoom link. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting. The Zoom link will work for the rest of the year. REGISTER
A weekly Zoom call to talk about housing legislation and strategies to preserve local control. Bring your questions and ideas. Informal networking, announcements, and updates. PLEASE NOTE: You have to register in advance the first time to get the new Zoom link. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting. The Zoom link will work for the rest of the year. REGISTER
A weekly Zoom call to talk about housing legislation and strategies to preserve local control. Bring your questions and ideas. Informal networking, announcements, and updates. PLEASE NOTE: You have to register in advance the first time to get the new Zoom link. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting. The Zoom link will work for the rest of the year. REGISTER
