Posted by: Gaetan Lion – August 12, 2023 – 9:52am
https://marinpost.org/blog/2023/8/12/abags-population-projections-are-delusional
The Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) does not disclose detailed annual projections. Instead, they disclose that the Bay Area population will be 10.3 million in 2050. A related graph within their Plan Bay Area 2050 indicates their projections follow a linear trend from 2015 to 2050. Thus, one can easily reconstruct annual projections between 2015 and 2050.
We already know that ABAG Bay Area population projections are way off
ABAG’s projections use 2015 as the most recent year of actuals.
ABAG’s projections to 2022 (most recent actual data) show how much ABAG dramatically overshot the Bay Area’s population growth. While ABAG projected that during this period, the Bay Area population would increase from 7.6 million to over 8.1 million, it actually decreased to under 7.6 million. ABAG overestimated the Bay Area population by 7.6%. This is a huge error this early in this forecast.