By: Gaetan Lion –
September 30, 2024
There are 10 Propositions on the California November ballot.You can get more information on these Props at the Voter Guide.
Upfront caveat
The probabilistic approach I use to figure out the likelihood of propositions passing may be too deterministic. Thus, one should take the probabilities I generate with a grain of salt. On the other hand, these probabilities may be more informative than the customary polls disclosures. They state that if the % Yes and % Nos are less than 6% apart; it is too close to call because it is within the error margin (based on a sample of 1,000 and an error margin of + or – 3%). This borders on the absurd.
